Paper Reading Journals #3
Forecasting the care needs of the older population in Englandover the next 20 years: estimates from the Population Ageingand Care Simulation (PACSim) modelling study
Basic Info
| Item | Content |
|---|---|
| Title | Forecasting the care needs of the older population in Englandover the next 20 years: estimates from the Population Ageingand Care Simulation (PACSim) modelling study |
| Journal | Lancet Public Health |
| Author | Kingston A, Comas-Herrera A, Jagger C. |
| Year Published | 2018 |
| Link | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(18)30118-X |
| Geography of Study | England |
| Area of Study | Aging, Aging and Care Simulation |
Description
(Including data and methods)
Data:
- Understanding Society wave 1 (n=27,293)
- English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) wave 5 (n=8,744)
- Cognitive Function and Ageing Study II (CFAS II; n=5,286)
Model:
- Discrete-time Dynamic Microsimulation Model -> Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) Model
- Validation: validate age-specific and sex-specific prevalence with the Health Survey for England 2014
Main Contribution
(Innovative method or Application)
Innovation Type: Application Innovation This study adopt dynamic microsimulation model to forecast dependency profiles of future older population based on longitudinal data.
Data Source
- Understanding Society wave 1 (n=27,293)
- English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) wave 5 (n=8,744)
- Cognitive Function and Ageing Study II (CFAS II; n=5,286)
Favorite Thing
PACSim / dynamic microsimulation is proved to be an effective and valid tool to estimate older adults health status, thus could help to estimate healthcare resources projection. It also provide three longitudinal dataset it used and what characteristics are included. We could learn from these three datasets and what characteristics could be include in our synthetic healthcare system.