Paper Reading Journals #12
Dementia Death Rates Prediction
Basic Info
| Item | Content |
|---|---|
| Title | Dementia Death Rates Prediction |
| Journal | BMC Psychiatry |
| Author | Oleksandr Gaidai, Vladimir Yakimov, Ramesh Balakrishna |
| Year Published | 2023 |
| Link | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12888-023-05172-2 |
| Geography of Study | Global |
| Area of Study | Dementia, Modeling |
Description
(Methods & Models)
The authors view countries as a 195-dimensional biosystem and propose a multidimensional biosystem reliability framework, which includes extracting time-series local maxima, applying population-based hazard scaling, merging all maxima into a single synthetic time vector, and performing extreme-value prediction on this synthetic vector.
Benchmark an comparison model: Gumbel Extreme Value Theory (Gumbel EVT)
Data Source
Our World in Data (OWID) provided 1990-2020 global dementia prevalence rate. Covered 195 countries (Afghanistan and Kiribati excluded).
Main Contribution
(Innovative method or Application)
Innovation Type: Method Innovation
This research paper proposed a multi-dimension biosystem maxima prediction framework. It provided a higher precision and narrower confidence interval in prediction tasks.
Favorite Thing
An innovative method approach to predict essential prevalance of dementia.